More clear thinking from Mr. Amir Taheri.

THE TIDE MAY BE TURNING AGAINST AHMADINEJAD
Is President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about to face the first serious challenge to his strategy of turning Iran into the vanguard of a global opposition to the United States?

The answer is yes. To meet that challenge Ahmadinejad may provoke a clash with the United States by heating things up in Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon before the end of the year.

Even a month ago, Ahmadinejad was riding the crest of his popularity among the regime's core constituency while cultivating a romantic image among Muslims elsewhere. His promise to distribute Iran's oil revenues was popular among millions of Iranians who live below the poverty line. In the broader Middle East, his call for "wiping Israel off the map" resonated with the remnants of pan-Arabism and radical Islamists who feel humiliated by American military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. With such a background, most politicians in the rival factions of the establishment believed that taking on Ahmadinejad in an election would be political suicide.

Unassailable

Now, however, Ahmadinejad no longer appears to be unassailable. And the coming elections in December are not going to be a walkover for his faction. A sign that the tide may be turning against the controversial president came earlier this month when virtually all groups and parties that had opposed him within the establishment decided not to boycott the elections. Ahmadinejad's faction may still win, but to do so it would have to fight harder than he had expected.


IRAQ & AMERICA'S '06 VOTE
At the polls next week, many Americans will cast their ballots on the basis of what's going on in Iraq.

This is not surprising. The war was always opposed by a large and vocal segment of the U.S. political and cultural elite. With the economy doing well and the nation so far protected against a repeat of 9/11, the American opposition has few horses to run against President Bush and his party. And Iraq is an attractive horse, illustrated by gruesome TV images almost every night.

Most Americans are unfamiliar with Iraq's complex political, ethnic, religious and cultural realities. So, when television presents a charred vehicle left by a suicide bomber and experts pronouncing Iraq a failure, many decide that it is a lost cause - and the sooner the Americans extricate themselves, the better.

This is precisely why the Saddamite desperados and the jihadists keep fighting a war in Iraq that they cannot win.

Unless we surrender, that is.