The Evans-Novak Political Report for November 1, 2006

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Outlook

Going into the last week of the campaign, there is no sign of a Democratic wave or a Republican wave. It still looks like a good day for Democrats looming on November 7, but not necessarily a catastrophe for Republicans.

Republicans worry about a bad message being given by the attention on Michael J. Fox's peripatetic campaigning for Democrats spotlighted by Rush Limbaugh's attack on him. Ridiculing the frailty of a sympathetic figure, no matter how uninformed his political ventures, is almost certain to backfire.

Similarly, President George W. Bush's increasingly vigorous campaigning with attacks on Democrats may be playing into Democratic hands by tending to "nationalize" the mid-term elections. Republican strategists have stressed localizing contests and opposing Democratic efforts to localize them.

Can the antics of Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) reverse these favorable Democratic trends? See a detailed analysis below.

Look for tight Senate races in Missouri, Montana and possibly Virginia to determine control of the Senate. Republicans have an outside chance to take a Democratic seat in two states: New Jersey and Maryland.

The Kerry Effect
It's not the biggest October Surprise, but Sen. Kerry's political self-destruct yesterday is the latest unexpected event. The entire incident reflects a man who missed the presidency by an inch, and who feels at the core of his being that he miscalculated in his 2004 campaign and doesn't want to make the same mistake again.

Kerry, addressing a crowd of Democrats in California on the topic of education, tied in the Iraq War by bringing up the long-standing complaint by some on the left that the military preys upon poor and uneducated youths in their recruitment. "You know, education, if you make the most of it, if you study hard and do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, uh, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq." That is a slightly meaner version of what several Democratic members of Congress have been saying for years.

Republicans were delighted when the remarks came to light and drew somber rebukes from the White House and from several Republican politicians, especially Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). It was shaping up as a motivator for a disillusioned Republican base, when Kerry issued an angrily written statement, apparently hastily written, aimed at "right-wing nut jobs" who were criticizing him.

In sum, Kerry said something he shouldn't have (nothing an apology could not have mended), but then gave his strident response to the criticism, which may have dealt a blow to Democrats and a death-blow to Kerry's political future. Kerry's extremely angry, aggressive follow-up presentation was so lacking in contrition that he made matters worse. As House Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) put it in a television interview, "He'd better apologize, or we're gonna beat him to death over this one."

Kerry still believes that his failure to respond quickly and aggressively to the attacks on his military record in 2004 cost him the presidency. He has taken so much grief from Democrats over his failure to stand up for himself and for liberal ideas that he felt the need to act decisively yesterday. That is what brought on his extremely ill-considered behavior.

Kerry's explanation -- that his original comment was meant as a jab at
President Bush -- was lost in a sea of angry anti-Bush rhetoric. The explanation also falls flat because his remarks are so clearly in line with accepted left-wing positions. If Kerry's fear was that Republicans would divert attention away from a failed Iraq policy, he managed only to give extra life to the news story that will indeed divert it. Whatever the truth at the heart of it all, the story going into the final week of the election is about John Kerry, who insulted the troops, refused to apologize, and erupted in a defiant televised speech.

How much damage will this cause Democrats? It unquestionably knocks them off their message, and it may even poison the well with respect to remarks critical of the Iraq War. Kerry's angry denial that he would ever speak ill of the troops brings back memories from 2004 -- specifically his 35-year-old testimony that his comrades in Vietnam were murderers and rapists. More immediately, Democratic candidates all over the country will now be asked whether Kerry owes an apology, which is a no-win proposition no matter how it is answered.

But the real damage will come in the form of increased Republican base turnout. Their old boogeyman has returned from the dead. What could be more effective in motivating disillusioned conservatives to vote next week than the sight of a defiant John Kerry insulting the troops and angrily refusing to apologize? We are told that the ads are already being cut and the mailers printed as we write. The effect will remain unknown until next week.

Heehee!

Senate 2006

Republicans' outlook for the Senate continues to deteriorate, but still, none of their close races are hopelessly lost. If the election were held today, we see Democrats splitting a 50-50 Senate with the GOP. Democrats +5, Republicans -5.

Turnout
Questions about Republican turnout -- a heavily discussed topic ever since the unexpectedly strong showing in 2004 -- have a flipside that few have discussed: what about the Democrats? For all the evidence that Republicans have been demoralized, there is also little evidence that the largest Democratic constituencies -- particularly African-Americans -- will be motivated to vote in several key places. If Democrats at universities are the only ones motivated, in a highly negative environment that could produce a low voter turnout anyway, this could affect some of the close Senate races.

Maryland
In Maryland, many blacks are expected to vote for Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R). This is particularly true after his opponent, Rep. Ben Cardin (D), snubbed the Charles County NAACP by skipping out of their debate last week, which he had been expected to attend. Steele was cheered at the event -- very unusual for a Republican -- and Cardin was booed when his name was mentioned.

Many black Democrats, feeling shut out of the state Democratic Party's leadership after a fractious primary, may decide not to vote. Others have been turned off by injudicious remarks by white Democrats in the state.

Cardin, meanwhile, has had a terrible week. He was clobbered in one debate and performed just adequately in another. On Monday, a group of prominent black Democratic leaders in Prince George's County announced their support for Steele. Cardin can take nothing for granted at this point. All of the momentum is with Steele, even though he still has an uphill climb in a blue state and in a Democratic year. Leaning Democratic Retention.

Michigan
In Michigan, Gov. Jenifer Granholm's (D) betrayal of Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (D) in the primary -- in other words, her support for his opponent -- means that the latter may sit on his hands next week when it comes to voter turnout for her re-election. This is precisely the formula that caused Gov. James Blanchard (D) to go down unexpectedly to defeat against John Engler (R) in 1990. It could potentially skew all of the voter turnout models being used in the polls for the contested Senate race between Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R).

Bouchard trails by at least seven points, but this one will end up closer than anyone thinks right now. Leaning Democratic Retention.

Missouri
The race between Sen. Jim Talent (R) and state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) remains neck and neck, but one key factor is the curious failure by the Democrat to consolidate the black vote. She is reportedly pulling just 70 percent of it at this point, when she should be at about 85 percent. Talent is known for working with the African-American community and for working for their votes when most Republican candidates do not. This race may decide control of the U.S. Senate. Leaning Republican Retention.


Montana
Two weeks ago, Sen. Conrad Burns (R) appeared dead in his bid for a fourth-term. Polls showing his Democratic opponent, State Sen. Jon Tester (D), with a double-digit lead caused GOP leaders in Washington to write off Burns. But less than a week before the election, Burns has closed to within a few percentage points of Tester.

The reason can be found in an 11th-hour Burns television ad on the issue of taxes. Thanks to a late infusion of additional cash from Washington, Burns is pounding away at Tester's tax policies as too liberal for Montana. This huge, sparsely populated state is a microcosm of this mid-term election's national political chess game. Democrats want the election to be a referendum on Burns, while Republicans want a choice between Burns and Tester.

All internal polling has ceased in this race, and public polls have Tester slightly ahead but within the margin of error. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Virginia
Sen. George Allen (R) was always the favorite in this race, but now he's gotten his own hands too dirty in what is by far the dirtiest Senate race of 2006. He has let this race devolve from a serious campaign into a circus campaign, which runs on personal attacks and lacks any debate or discussion of issues. Nearly every ad on the air in Virginia is either a negative attack or an attack on the other candidate for being too negative.

One can certainly blame Allen's opponent, former Navy Secretary Jim Webb (D), who has launched his own personal attacks through surrogates. But the final blow to any seriousness in this race was Allen's criticism last week of the disturbing and racy scenes in Webb's novels.

We believe that this attack may be backfiring against Allen and that the effects are being seen in the latest polls, both of which have Webb leading. It is much easier to dump an incumbent in a circus campaign than it is in a serious campaign. We see here shades of the same miscalculations made by Jerry Kilgore (R) as he lost to Gov. Tim Kaine (D) last year after running highly negative ads that backfired.

George Allen, once a leading candidate for President, is on the verge of losing his Senate seat, and possibly Republican control of the Senate. Leaning Democratic Takeover.


House 2006

Even as House Republicans pull some of their most endangered members out of the fire, new casualties keep cropping up. The effect of Sen. John Kerry's remarks remains unknown.

If the election were held today, Democrats would seize control of the House of Representatives, perhaps by a substantial margin. In addition to the ones where they trail, Republicans now have several races teetering on the brink of disaster. Democrats +20, Republicans -20.