From Best of the Web Today:
As Jay Cost notes on RealClearPolitics.com, Republicans so far are defending 17 open House seats, vs. just 9 for Democrats. But "the Democrats enjoy little-to-no real advantage because of open seats":
In 2006, the quality of Republican open seats is very poor from the Democrats' perspective. Consider the following:
Of the 17 open Republican seat districts, Bush won 15 in 2000 and 2004. Bush's median percentage of the vote in 2000 in all 17 was 55%. In 2004 it was 57%
Of the 17 open Republican seats, Bush increased his percentage of the total vote by an average of 3% between 2000 and 2004.
The median Cook Partisan Voting Index of these 17 districts is
Republican +5. In other words, the median district of these 17 tends to vote Republican 5% more than the nation.
Simply stated, Democrats are not salivating at this set of 17. These are not the sorts of districts that have shifted against Bush and the GOP enough to give the Democrats a real shot.
Also, MoveOn.org is still actively campaigning for Democrats, and as Donkey Cons Lynn Vincent and Robert Stacy McCain note, "MoveOn has never won anything":
They failed to prevent Clinton's impeachment, failed to help Dems take back Congress in 1998, failed to elect Al Gore, failed to help Gore win the Florida recount--failed, failed, failed. By the time 2004 rolled around, MoveOn's presence in any political controversy was a certain bellwether of failure: Whatever side MoveOn is on, the other side wins.
Most recently, the Cons note, MoveOn used the campaign of Ciro Rodriguez against moderate Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar as a fund-raising tool--and helped lead Rodriguez, who lost to Cuellar two years ago by a few dozen votes, to a drubbing earlier this week.
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