2 from Dr. Rummel.

Could it be true? The rest of academia is beginnning to catch up to Dr. Rummel and common sense.


More: The Democratic Peace Causes a Sharp Decline In Violence
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A study has just been published by the Human Security Center, War and Peace In The 21St Century (pdf here). I recommend reading it for the comprehensiveness of its data and analysis.

The reports conclusions are:

Over the past dozen years, the global security climate has changed in dramatic, positive, but largely unheralded ways. Civil wars, genocides and international crises have all declined sharply. International wars, now only a small minority of all conflicts, have been in steady decline for a much longer period, as have military coups and the average number of people killed per conflict per year. The wars that dominated the headlines of the 1990s were real—and brutal—enough. But the global media have largely ignored the 100-odd conflicts that have quietly ended since 1988. During this period, more wars stopped than started. The extent of the change in global security following the end of the Cold War has been remarkable:


°The number of armed conflicts around the world has declined by more than 40% since the early 1990s. [See the igure below from the report]


°Between 1991 (the high point for the post–World War II period) and 2004, 28 armed struggles for self-determination started or restarted, while 43 were contained or ended. There were just 25 armed secessionist conflicts under way in 2004, the lowest number since 1976.


°Notwithstanding the horrors of Rwanda, Srebrenica and elsewhere, the number of genocides and politicides plummeted by 80% between the 1988 high point and 2001.


°International crises, often harbingers of war, declined by more than 70% between 1981 and 2001.


°The dollar value of major international arms transfers fell by 33% between 1990 and 2003 (Figure 1.10). Global military expenditure and troop numbers declined sharply in the 1990s as well.


°The number of refugees dropped by some 45% between 1992 and 2003, as more and more wars came to an end.


°Five out of six regions in the developing world saw a net decrease in core human rights abuses between 1994 and 2003.The positive changes noted above date from the end of the Cold War. Other changes can be traced back to the 1950s:


°The average number of battle-deaths per conflict per year—the best measure of the deadliness of warfare— has been falling dramatically but unevenly since the 1950s. In 1950, for example, the average armed conflict killed 38,000 people; in 2002 the figure was 600, a 98% decline.


°The period since the end of World War II is the longest interval of uninterrupted peace between the major powers in hundreds of years.


°The number of actual and attempted military coups has been declining for more than 40 years. In 1963 there were 25 coups and attempted coups around the world, the highest number in the post–World War II period. In 2004 there were only 10 coup attempts—a 60% decline. All of them failed.





Those pesky Iraqis and their proclivity for polling places strike a chord in the hearts of all who have not yet tuned out the song of freedom.

Another Democratic Peace Victory
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What can I say? I'm thrilled at the greater than expected turnout in the Iraq referendum; I'm thrilled at the pictures of women voting, I'm thrilled at the Iraqi's dancing in the street. And although the count is not in, not even a partial count as of this writing, I confidently predict victory for the constitution. How can I be so confident? The Iraqis are voting for their future, for democracy, for their freedom. By secret ballot. This is not an interview by a Western newsman, this is not a minority demonstration with waving fists, and this is not a questionable survey. Shiites, Kurds, and yes, most important, Sunnis -- that is, the PEOPLE are free to vote their hearts and minds. And, I trust the people when freedom is the question (c'mon, now, they did not vote Hitler into power, or Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, Tojo, Tito, Castro, Idi Amin, Saddam, and so on for the world's bloodiest dictators).This is a victory in the War On Terror. It is a stunning defeat for the terrorists, the dictators that support them, The New York Times, CNN. PBS, BBC, the academic left, moveon.org, Michael More, mother Sheehan, the ACLU, and their ilk. The democratic peace marches on.