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From Rasmussen Reports:
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows
Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while
President Obama earns the vote from 46%. One percent (1%) prefers some
other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Other than brief convention bounces, this is the first time either candidate has led by more than three points in months. See daily tracking history.
Romney attracts support from 89% of Republican voters. The president earns the vote from 82% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, the GOP challenger leads by nine.
These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of last night’s final presidential debate. It will take a few days to see if the debate had a significant impact on the race.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
The latest telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken last night, shows President Obama with 49% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers another candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Mitt Romney has now hit the 50% mark in Virginia.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken two nights after the second presidential debate, shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Virginia, considered a critical state to both candidates’ political fortunes, remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
A week ago, Romney led 49% to 47% in Virginia. Prior to this survey, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey here since April.
Ninety-four percent (94%) of likely voters in the Old Dominion say they are certain to vote in this election. Among these voters, Romney leads 52% to 47%.
Among the 88% of voters in the state who say they’ve already decided whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 49%.
Romney has small leads among both male and female voters in the state. Voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties prefer the Republican challenger by a modest 49% to 45% margin.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to Obama’s 46%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Florida now moves from a Toss-Up to Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.
Last week, Romney held a slightly narrower 51% to 47% lead. Prior to that time, the candidates have been within two points of each other in Florida in every survey since April.
Ninety-five percent (95%) of likely voters in the Sunshine State say they are certain to vote in this year’s election. Among these voters, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 47%.
Florida allows early voting, and among voters who have already voted, Romney's ahead 51% to 45%.
Among those who have yet to vote, 88% say they have already made up their minds which candidate they will vote for. Romney leads 54% to 45% among these voters.
Still, a plurality (49%) of all voters in the state expect Obama to win the election, while 38% think Romney will come out on top. But that's a narrower gap than is found nationally.
Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Tuesday, October 23, 2012The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.
Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 45%. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
This is now the third time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states in the past four days and is the biggest lead either candidate has held in nearly three weeks. This survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, and as a result, virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the end of last night’s presidential debate. Romney has now held a modest lead for 12 of the last 15 days; Obama was ahead twice, and the candidates ran even once.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
Romney now leads by 16 points among male voters in the swing states and trails by three points among female voters.
Nationally, Romney has now also hit the 50% level of support in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $3.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on Election 2012, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.