The Evans-Novak Political Report for May 24, 2006

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Outlook:
1) Republican strategists looking for a positive development leading up to the '06 elections are hoping that the long-delayed establishment of a government in Baghdad will result in a pullback of troops from Iraq in early autumn.

2) The immigration issue continues to be a killer for Republicans. The House Republican leadership is adamant against any guest-worker program until the border is secured. That is definitely not the position of President George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). The Senate-House conference will be brutal.

3) Howard Dean continues to be an embarrassment for the Democrats with his covert support for the losing candidate in the New Orleans mayoral election and his sub-par fundraising (see below). But there's nothing anybody can do about it before the 2008 election.

4) Hyping his global-warming film, Al Gore looks like the most serious Democratic presidential threat to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in '08. Nobody thinks Gore has really taken himself out of consideration, and he is rising in popularity and esteem as the candidate of the left.

5) The bribery scandal touching Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) is a blow to Democrats' being able to credibly claim that corruption is strictly a Republican problem, although House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is still trying to do that. She has now asked Jefferson to resign from the Ways and Means Committee.

State of the Parties:

As Democrats realize that their best chance of regaining power is a takeover of the U.S. House -- and that this is an increasingly realistic goal -- the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is reaping the benefits of the good press as they inch closer to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in cash on hand. The new numbers represent even more bad news for the GOP House majority, which appears to be in increasing peril. The DCCC's near catch-up with the NRCC in House campaign cash on hand is, therefore, both a cause for and a result of Democrats' improvement of prospects for this November.

On the other hand, the cash catch-up is partly a reflection of the NRCC's stepped-up spending, which will be badly needed this year. NRCC officials are also counting on their summer fundraising, which they expect will put them well ahead.

Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) under Howard Dean returned to running a monthly deficit -- this time of about $600,000 -- and continues to lag far behind its Republican counterpart in cash on hand. Democrats still complain about Dean's decision to send operatives to states that are not competitive in 2006. Dean failed in his effort to aid Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D), the clear favorite, in the New Orleans mayoral race (more below). His organization appears to be essentially out of play for the 2006 election.

That hardly means that Republicans can buy the election with Republican National Committee (RNC) money. Quite the contrary: As matters currently stand, they will be fortunate to hold on to the House of Representatives, and even the Senate is in play. But the financial situation does put Democrats in a less-than-ideal position to take advantage of what promises to be their best election since 1998.

House 2006:

Democrats continue to make noise about possibly winning a majority in the House, and their prospects remain bright, although they have little room for error. At this point, Republicans hope to localize the elections and not let them become a national referendum either on their performance or that of President Bush. Despite the poor ratings Congress -- and the GOP majority -- get as a whole, surveys show that voters remain happy about their own members of Congress by a healthy margin, somewhere in the high 50s. As long as members continue to work their districts hard and keep in touch with their constituents, the logic goes, they should win re-election. Democrats lost seats with this strategy in 2002 and 2004, but they did not lose much. The "localized" approach is not conceptually flawed.

The NRCC is particularly concerned about members who have "gone Washington" after many years in office. Many of them will face serious trouble this fall and don't see it coming -- the old bulls who have not had a tough race in years and who are not accustomed to the arduous work of campaigning as if for their political lives.

A couple of Pennsylvania R's are in trouble this year:

Pennsylvania-6: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) has not been in Washington long enough to "go Washington," and he has had to fight hard in both of his elections. Despite the fact that he faces one of the toughest re-elects of any House incumbent, Gerlach has already had his arm twisted by the House leadership to change his vote on at least one sensitive topic, the energy bill. The victory by a Democrat in a longtime-Republican state senate district special election last week is an ominous sign.

Gerlach and his rematch opponent, Lois Murphy (D), will come down to the wire this year, with millions to be spent in the expensive Philadelphia-area media market. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Pensylvania-7, 10: Among those who could be blindsided by this year's election are Representatives Don Sherwood (R-Pa.) and Curt Weldon (R-Pa.). Sherwood, who had an embarrassing incident with his young mistress, last week barely won his primary against a conservative who spent almost no money and did little active campaigning. This outcome will embolden Democrats to help Chris Carney (D), Sherwood's Democratic opponent. Leaning Republican Retention.

Weldon, a senior member of the Armed Services Committee, has made gaffes worthy of a freshman campaigner. Over the years, since his first House election in 1986, his district has grown increasingly Democratic under his feet. He faces a tough and moneyed opponent in Joe Sestak (D), a retired Navy admiral. Leaning Republican Retention.

Senate 2006:

Connecticut: Despite attempts by Sen. Joe Lieberman's (D) campaign to high-ball his primary opponent's expected support in the state convention, Ned Lamont (D) surprised every one by receiving support from more than 30 percent of the delegates. This is more than twice what he needed to be on the August 8 primary ballot.

Some seasoned political observers in Connecticut believe that Lieberman could realistically lose the Democratic primary to the left-wing, anti-war Lamont. If so, Lamont would be the first-ever winner to come out of the Internet leftist movement against a Democratic incumbent. We don't see this as likely -- not yet, anyway. This race is not exactly the Chafee-Laffey GOP matchup in Rhode Island because Lieberman is a liberal at heart, and he comes home on all but very few issues (Chafee is not a conservative).
Undeclared voters will have the opportunity to support Lieberman in the primary if they so desire.

In the event that he loses the primary, Lieberman is certain to run as an independent candidate. Republicans would like to get someone stronger into the race in that event -- perhaps Rep. Chris Shays (R). But the current GOP candidate, former Derby Mayor Alan Schlesinger (R), is not expected to acquiesce to this.

Lieberman would be the favorite in a three-way race, but three-way Senate races have a way of turning out oddly for incumbents, as prior contests have demonstrated in both Connecticut (Lowell Weicker's (R) 1970 election) and New York State (the elections of Alfonse D'Amato (R) in 1980 and James Buckley (CP) in 1970).

An interesting question is just how much a loss in the primary would alienate the already out-of-place Lieberman from his party. His fellow officeholders -- particularly Sen. Chris Dodd (D) -- have supported him to the hilt, but an election victory in the face of rejection by Democratic primary voters would prove that Lieberman has established himself as an institution independent of his party. It would free Lieberman up to take a more moderate tack in the Senate than he has already. Leaning Lieberman.

Maryland: Race continues to factor heavily here. Backers of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) think that if they can get 25 percent of the black vote, they'll win this race in a very tough state for Republicans. The likelihood of this increases each time former Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D) complains about his treatment by fellow Democrats and threatens not to endorse the expected primary winner, Rep. Ben Cardin (D). For his part, Steele is doing well to abandon President Bush on a variety of issues, which works to his benefit. Among the programs he opposes is No Child Left Behind, which probably helps him with both the left and the right. Leaning Democratic Retention.

Washington: In every election, there are a handful of states that defy the national party trend. For example, in 2002, Illinois and California saw huge Democratic triumphs even as Republicans swept both houses of Congress and did surprisingly well on the state level. Likewise, in 2004, Democrats lost big nationwide, but made gains in Montana, Washington State, Vermont and Colorado.

Washington promises to be one of the states this year that will defy the 2006 trend toward the Democrats, as the pendulum here swings back. Anger still lingers over the disputed outcome of the 2004 gubernatorial race, in which a series of recounts and boxes of newly discovered votes handed power to Gov. Christine Gregoire (D). Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is polling weakly against a wealthy challenger who really has yet to expend much in the way of campaign resources. As former Safeco President and CEO Mike McGavick (R) takes to the airwaves with radio ads, he finds himself only six points or so behind the incumbent.

McGavick is hitting Cantwell for a politically unwise (and decisive) vote in favor of giving Social Security benefits to illegal aliens. This theme will definitely pop up in several Senate races this year, to the chagrin of those who voted as she did. Leaning Democratic Retention.