1) The guys who set the lines are professionals. Their job is to make each game look as attractive as possible to everyone. That way they even out the amount of money bet on each side.
Instant translation: The house wins no matter who wins. That's why people get into the gambling business.
2) I am just a fan. I won't even keep track of these picks week to week if it gets too embarrassing.
3) There is no such thing as "inside information". Especially in the pros.
4) If those idiot touts on tv and in the paper were any good, they wouldn't go public with their genius. They'd sit at Harrah's sports book from open to close and then go out and buy $2,000 an hour hookers who dress like high school girls.
5) Gambling is stupid. You cannot win.
That being said, here are my NFL picks for this week.
Saturday 1/14
Washington (+9.5) at Seattle
That's a good number if Seattle is at the top of their game and the Redskins play like they did last week. I'll take the Redskins and the points. Seahawks will win, but by no more than three points.
FINAL: Seahawks 20 Redskins 10 - Fyodor loses!
New England (+3) at Denver
I have been waiting for Jake Plummer to revert to form all year, but he seems to have learned not to throw interceptions. Going against most of my instincts, I will take the Broncos to cover.
FINAL: Broncos 27 Patriots 13 - Fyodor wins! (Wow. The Patriots are human.)
Sunday 1/15
Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Indianapolis
I think the Colts will cover, but since I'm not really betting and I'd like to be able to root for my Steelers, I'm taking Pittsburgh and the points. If the Steelers' O line can dominate the game and open lots of holes for Fast Willie and The Bus, the Steelers have a chance.
FINAL: Steelers 21 Colts 18 - Fyodor wins! (Yippee! For more, look here.)
Carolina (+3) at Chicago
I'm taking the Panthers and the points. Chicago will win 10-7, or something similar to that.
FINAL: Panthers 29 Bears 21 - Fyodor wins! (Don't blame Rex Grossman. The Bears O put up 21, but their vaunted D came up small.)
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